Does the average predicted retention increase with time?

I feel like the answer should be yes, but I’ve been watching the percentage for the past couple of weeks and there seems to be no real change in value. My average stability has increased by about 2 weeks in that period of time.

The short answer is that it shouldn’t change with time. The small changes that do occur mainly result from the scheduler fuzz (assuming that you don’t change your parameters or desired retention).

A simple explanation:

  • The retention of most cards decreases with time until they become due and you review them.
  • The retention of cards that you review jumps from your desired retention (± fuzz) to 100%.
  • On an average, the total retention remains the same.

However, as you have noted, the average stability should increase with time, especially if you are not introducing a very large number of new cards every day.

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That’s interesting. Don’t get me wrong, being able to recall 95% of my cards at any time is amazing. Especially when you consider the clearly decreasing daily workload (now that I’ve finished the deck). Thanks for your reply!

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