hello,
after asking many IA bots, after running the FSRS simulator (which I think is much too optimistic), I still have the same question : if I stop adding new cards, will my daily number of reviews keep decreasing indefinitely ?
I have 40000 cards, a desired retention rate of 86%, a real retention of 88%. one of my decks is 3 year old and I didn’t see much of a decrease last year.
what is older users experience on this ?
thank you !
Yes, it will generally decrease, as long as you’re reaching your Desired Retention (DR). But even if “indefinitely” could be mathematically accurate, it’s a bit of an exaggeration for any practical purpose. As you have fewer and fewer cards due, the decreases will be slighter and slighter.
What is the simulator telling you that looks wrong? It’s an experimental feature, so it might not fit everyone perfectly.
Are you using the right figures in your simulations?
Linking to your prior threads about the FSRS Simulator –
let me give you two examples :
deck 1 : 12000 cards, currently 37 reviews a day, lots of mature cards. only a very light decrease in the past year and the simulator tells me there will be a massive drop in reviews to reach 23 in 2 months and 17 in a year. I can tell you from experience that the big 2 month drop will not happen and 17 is also super optimistic.
deck 2 : 14000 cards, currently 55 reviews a day, many more young cards and instead of a big drop (thanks to these young cards), I see an increase in the next 2 months that is coming out of nowhere and then another bump (much easier to understand because I added a bunch of new cards recently and they will resurface in about 3 months) and then a downslope that seems fairly plausible.
I’m too lazy to keep my data and see if the predictions will be correct but considering what happened in the past, I bet they’re very wrong.
what is the feedback from other users ? they think the simulator is pretty correct ?
in the simulations, I’m not changing any number and adding new cards/day is not even working in deck but it is in deck 2. very strange
I’m trying to look at your collection that is synced ot AnkiWeb, but I’m not finding anything that quite matches what you’re describing. Is your AnkiWeb collection up-to-date? What decks/presets are you using in those examples?