Yeah like if I repeated each piece of information a certain amount of times, what would my predicted retention of those pieces of information turn out to be the day after.
So for example, my learning steps are 1s 5min 30min 2h
That is 4 steps.
So my x in this equation is 4
The constant k however depends on YOUR memory strength, which means I have to get a first run of your reviews to find out what k is.
So for example, with x being my number of steps set as 4,
I reviewed my graduated cards the next day, and my retention turned out to be 85%. (R=85/100=0.85)
Put your R and x into the equation.
After solving the equation for k, k becomes:
This would try to depict my memory state and average difficulty for your cards for that particular day. Now obviously short-term-memory being much more unpredictable, you need to do this multiple times with more sets of data of yours. (you need to have kept a record of next-day-retention. Anki does not have this automated, yet at least)
Now that I have found my OWN k, I can now put it in the equation to try and predict the retention for different numbers of steps, which is the main point of this equation
So what if for example, what would happen if I used only three learning steps.
It predicts that
My retention rate would drop down to appox. 76%
This can be used in a different way. For example, how many learning steps do I need to achieve a 90% retention the next day.
About 5 learning steps it is.
And that should be about it. I would like for the devs to try it. It is a simple formula and I am not math graduate or anything. I just found that it somehow works. Maybe the devs could use it as a starting point to try and incorporate short-term-memory into Anki as well.