Backlog: Low Retention Rate for Mature Cards

Anki FSRS
1

I have a large backlog, and I spent the last week trying to etch at this backlog little by little. I have set the decks to be all sorted according to Relative Overdueness so that it begins with cards that I have most likely forgotten are about to forget.

My desired retention was set at 95%.

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Today I had a very poor performance.

As you can see, there is a pattern - I perform much better with young cards than with mature cards. Is this expected behaviour :question:

And does this have to do with interference from newly learned content with the old content inside my memory (like basic physiology of human memory) :question:

Or does FSRS generally find it more difficult to schedule long term cards than it does with short term (young) ones :question:

@Expertium

2

As you can see, there is a pattern - I perform much better with young cards than with mature cards. Is this expected behaviour :question:

No, this is not intended.

And does this have to do with interference from newly learned content with the old content inside my memory (like basic physiology of human memory) :question:

Well, it could be, if your cards have similar content such that you can confuse card A with card B, and vice versa.

Or does FSRS generally find it more difficult to schedule long term cards than it does with short term (young) ones :question:

No, at least generally, no. Idk about your particular case.

3

No, this is not intended.

Do you know of any potential causes for why is that the case my true retention for mature cards are clearly not within error range of the desired retention :question:

I mean obviously backlog is one of them. Maybe I have run into a bunch of difficult cards in the past week but I dont know what is the exact cause.

4

I don’t know, unfortunately.

5

You could try filtering reviews in the default Stats window to see what kind of cards may have been young when you reviewed them recently.

6

You have already asked similar questions and received answers to them.

7

Nope! I ask you to read what I mentioned again. I have noticed there is a big discrepancy in my retention for mature cards compared to my young cards.

That is a different issue to when I made a 10000 card haul and seeing whether the average predicted retention was indeed accurate or not.

8

FSRS can schedule the cards for when you are most likely to remember them, but it cannot force you to remember them. You had a rough day with a higher number of lapses. You should shake it off and get back to studying. FSRS will take these outcomes into account for scheduling these cards in the future.

2 Likes
9

Oke :confused: it was just a really bad day at the office then. I reoptimized my scheduler since it was a while since I last optimized (1-2 weeks?).

10

Both are about the accuracy of FSRS.

You also forget that you are not a robot, it is impossible to accurately predict your memory. I have already written to you about this.

Also, do not forget that you have a backlog, so many cards could have a “Retrievability” below 95%.

What kind of “Retrievabilitydid” you have before?

11

Here are my stats in the past year

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12

Sorry, I meant “Desired retention”

13

My desired retention was set at 95%.

14

So did you change the “Desired retention” or not?

15

It has always remained the same the entire time for the whole year.

16

Your retention is much better than mine. My mature retention is around 70 per cent and young retention around 90 lol. It’s probabaly because of interference as Kanji looks very similar to each other and has many readings for the same thing.